Greedy Guts

Queens Park Rangers 2 Doncaster Rovers 1

Everton 4 Queens Park Rangers 0 (FA Cup 3rd Round)

I'm spending the last day before going back to work in bed with severe stomach pains after eating way more than I should have for dinner last night. I'm actually on a diet, but give myself a 24 hours per week reprieve when, for some reason, I think it's ok to pig out even though I'm actually not really hungry. I think I've learned my lesson. It is, however, extremely annoying given that this past holiday season has actually not been hugely excessive so to end on a low is disappointing. Well, with eyes bigger than my stomach what did I expect?

Last Wednesday's win against Doncaster was a huge relief. I'll admit for the most part I was miserable, scared, worried, angry. For a team that had one of the best defences in the league I couldn't understand why we were being caught on the break so much. It was awful awful weather too- rain pouring, wind swirling. Cold. It was one of those games where you wondered just what the hell you were doing supporting QPR. However, as soon as we had scored that first goal the change it had made in our tempo and attitude was huge. I'm not saying we played to a high standard, but we were better. Which just goes to show just how much this is all about confidence and belief. It's hard for me to believe that such an experienced set of players could lose confidence but I was having a discussion with a friend about it and he was saying he felt that that was the single biggest difference between the good teams and the not-so-good teams: The clinical belief that one would create a victory out of nothing or out of a negative situation. Of course, Manchester Utd is a case in point where we will often see them concede early on. But more often than not, they clinically turn the game around and finish it off with a victory. That, I'm afraid is not a typical QPR way. But nor, for that matter, is it the way of several other clubs in the country.

What I am saying is, let's not have eyes bigger than our stomachs. You guessed it - I'm referring to the post-match 'meltdown' which I also referred to in my last blog Collective Psychosis.Yes, it is annoying that we aren't really that good, and that we've got some expensive players that don't consistently perform as we'd like. But we're a good championship club with most players actually delivering on par.  With all the negative vibes - calls for Redknapp's departure and shouts of Austin being rubbish (oh, by the way he scored again this week), I'm surprised we haven't seen any QPR shirts floating on the shores off Beachy Head recently.

It seems as if, since we have come in to money as a club our expectations are much bigger than they should be. Fernandes certainly does not help at times - naturally his ultimate goal is to deliver us back in to the Premier League and he does love social media, so we all get totally brainwashed in to thinking a bad result is the end of the world and the end of this quest. But I don't remember us feeling quite so suicidal when we lost games last time we went up. Surely Fernandes has a plan B or C, as any good business man would? And frankly, on yesterday's performance against Everton this is hopefully the reality check he needs to remember just how far there is to go before we're even ready.

Please, do not mistake me for being negative at all. In fact, this year has been fantastic. We've been winning games more, away games are so much cheaper, plus I haven't had to sit next to someone who isn't a QPR supporter yet. But remember what happened when we got greedy last time, brought in loads of wonderful players like Bosingwa and Zamora? Brought in Mark Hughes and his dodgy agents? No thanks. I'd rather have the stability we have now than a bloated team of players and staff who simply don't care.

And speaking of players, as you know Charlie Austin is someone I've admired from the moment he started playing for us. He is hard working, positive and skillful. My face was beaming not only when he scored the winning goal against Doncaster but when, soon after, he tracked all the way back to defend the ball as well. For me, this is so much more valuable than anything we could ever say about our poor tactical strategy, individual errors or formation. We haven't had such an individual for a long time and I'd swap 10 Taarabts for 1 Austin.

Or is that just being greedy now?

Happy New Year everyone!

Cake

Doncaster Rovers 2 Queens Park Rangers 1

At work I am discovering the world of econometrics. Not an easy concept to understand but in basic terms an econometric model helps businesses to understand what, out of a number of variables, is driving results and return on investment. For marketers, this may be in the form of brand health or sales for example. Econometricians describe the process of modelling as something akin to baking a cake, where after receiving the data they then do all sorts of complicated mathematical things to understand what's driving what, and where there is a correlation.

With the way QPR are playing at the moment, I can't help but think about this concept of a cake. Across the social space, fans are debating about what the problem is - is it tactics and formation or is it simply attitude or effort? An econometrician would look at all of these things and try to understand which elements are causing problems for us. Although, of course - with having won almost all games, the combination of variables would currently be perceived as positive if indeed our ultimate goal or measure was to win games, and not just to play exciting football.

As I alluded to last week, the team does seem organised and regimented. People know their positions, but we don't seem to be playing out of them where I think we should be - when we've got a chance to take a risk, or run at the opposition and score goals. I would also suggest that the last two matches have seen a few players pull in more lacklustre performances: some fancy passes but just not ones that are dangerous enough for the Championship. Yes Niko, your bum looks great in the QPR shorts but perhaps a few more sessions down at the gym will improve performance? Playing with only one up front may also be taking its toll. While we have suffered a bout of injuries many players are back or coming back from them, and yet Harry has decided to stick with the past. This is so unlike the former Tottenham manager who we know likes to take a gamble and has always put forward an attacking team. Then there is the personal stuff we don't know about that goes on behind closed doors- were there players that had crap going on at home which made them lack focus yesterday, or did someone get annoyed that they were left on the bench and didn't start which got up everyone's nose before the match began? Who knows?

On the other hand, so far, this type of approach has allowed us to win by narrow margins. Until yesterday.

So, what is it that is going wrong out of all the possibilities? I would suggest an econometrician would be hard pressed to figure it out for QPR. They are right though, it is like a cake in that it's probably a combination of everything together that is driving this general malaise in football results as well as style of play. We do have one problem though. Econometrics also assumes that for all brands there is a base level of sales or results. This is the base level that continues to happen no matter what other variables or factors occur in time- that base level relies on ongoing sales, repeat purchases as well as the power of the brand. I am not sure that any club other than perhaps the Uniteds and Reals of this world can boast a base level of results. Most other football teams have too much volatility in their existence. However the one constant which has always amazed me and makes me extremely proud is the hardcore base level of loyal QPR fans. For such a small club we bring over 1,000 people for most away games and Fernandes and his team can rely on a near-sell out crowd for most matches. Unfortunately, good football results cannot solely rely on fans. .

I witnessed an argument yesterday at the Keepmoat. One person was claiming we were playing negatively, another was saying it might be ugly but it's winning us games. I agreed with both until we lost. And taking into account all of the above, we can't rely on a base level of play because frankly we haven't got it. I believe Harry has to take a bit more risk and use the players to their full potential. And that has to be not just in terms of formation, but in terms of tactics and in terms of who's playing and what ever the hell is motivating them. Everyone knows the best chefs are those that experiment with new ideas and ingredients, right?

Here is everyone before the match at a great fish restaurant in Doncaster called Fish Bits

Outside Fish Bits in Doncaster